Remember the folks who told us that schizophrenia was caused by toxic moms? That just about anything that was psychologically "wrong" with a son was ... mommy's fault? Well ... they're BAAAACK!

According to the AP report (July 15, 1997), the study found that women who smoke while pregnant are "four times more likely" (more likely than whom?) to give birth to boys who have "conduct disorder" -- boys who are chronic liars, arsonists, vandals, sadists, sexual aggressors and thieves.

The AP report is pretty sketchy about how the researchers came up with their conclusions, but here's what it said about the basic methodology:

"Researchers studied 177 boys ages 7 to 12 who had been referred to outpatient clinics in Pennsylvania and Georgia for possible conduct disorder."

In other words, if the report is accurate, the study population was a small group of boys who were presumably doing one or more of the following: lying, setting fires, vandalizing, engaging in physical cruelty, acting out in a sexually aggressive manner, and stealing.

No ordinary, well-adjusted kids were allowed into the database in the first place, apparently. (Guess you couldn't reasonably be expected to find any smokers among their parents, anyhow.)

The report goes on to tell us that 105 of the boys were diagnosed with conduct disorder.

We're told that the mothers of all boys in the study group were asked if they had smoked during pregnancy -- 42 said they had smoked more than a half pack a day during pregnancy, while 23 said they had smoked up to a half pack per day. In other words, 65 moms had smoked to one extent or another, 112 moms hadn't.

Results?

An astonishing 80 per cent of the sons of the heavier smokers had conduct disorder! Among lighter smokers, 70 per cent of the sons had conduct disorder! The balance of the moms were nonsmokers and the rate of conduct disorder among their sons was only 50 per cent!

How is a diagnosis of "conduct disorder" determined and how subjective is it? What is the rate of "conduct disorder" in the general population of boys in the relevant age group? Has the biological plausibility of linking maternal smoking to youngsters who torture cats and steal from other people been sufficiently considered? Who knows? Who cares? The important thing is that a sensational notion has been conveyed to a lay audience.

So let's have some fun with figures.

On the up side, it's comforting to know that the rate of evil male offspring among nonsmoking mothers is a mere 50 per cent -- that, as a nonsmoker, your chances of bringing a sadistic, violent pathological liar of a son into the world are only about 50-50 if you give birth to a boy. Let's see, that must mean that, adjusting for the fact that about 50 per cent of newborns are girls, your net likelihood of dropping a monster is a mere 25 per cent. Whew! Good news for expectant moms.

On the down side...well, we'll wait for the other shoe to drop. Someone in the "get tough with crime" lobby is bound to suggest sterilization for smoking women on the grounds that they are populating the prisons and making the streets unsafe.

Has anyone done a study of the rates of "conduct disorder" among psychiatric researchers, and the reporters who convey their work to a public audience? Now that would make for an interesting grant application!