An Ap News Analysis
By RON FOURNIER
Wednesday, June 17, 1998; 6:38 p.m. EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Big Tobacco won big, no butts about it.

In what Democrats hope will be a defining moment of the 1998 election season, Senate Republicans emerged from what President Clinton derisively called a ``smoked-filled room'' and moved to kill a tough-on-tobacco bill Wednesday.

In retrospect, it should come as no surprise. The victory for tobacco can be traced to late April, when RJR Nabisco chairman Steven Goldstone said the industry would launch a national advertising campaign to turn public opinion against the anti-smoking legislation.

The strategy: Portray the bill as a big-tax, big-government boondoggle.

Goldstone said then he was taking his case to the American public -- ``I'm done making a point to these people in Washington.''

Nothing could be further from the truth. The multimillion dollar radio and TV blitz spoke directly to ``these people'' in Washington -- playing on the anti-tax sentiments of Republican lawmakers and the industry's sizable influence within the GOP.

In 1997 and the first three months of this year alone, Big Tobacco donated more than $4.2 million to candidates and political parties. All but a quarter of that total went to Republicans.

Democratic and Republican pollsters alike soon reported that support for the anti-tobacco legislation was softening. Republicans, who watched Clinton exploit the issue to secure suburban voters in 1996, figured they now had the political protection to side with tobacco interests -- their natural tendency anyhow.

``It's just a spending bill,'' Sen. Majority Leader Trent Lott said early this month, sending the first signal that he and his colleagues had heard Goldstone loud and clear.

With Wednesday's votes, the issue moves beyond congressional rules and becomes an explosive political issue for the fall campaign.

Republicans followed Lott's example, calling the bill too big and too taxing. ``This bill goes way too far,'' Republican whip Don Nickles said. ``Every single dime of this bill is over and above the budget.''

Democrats are sure to follow the footsteps of Clinton, who said Republicans ought to ``protect the children and not the tobacco lobby.''

``There can be no possible explanation'' for the bill failing ``other than the intense pressure and the awesome influence fueled by years of huge contributions of Big Tobacco,'' Clinton said.

``If this bill goes down today,'' said Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, ``Joe Camel wins and our children will lose.''

White House officials predicted Democrats will try to tack tobacco to other bills. They know it may never pass, but that's not the point: Democrats want House and Senate Republicans to vote against the measure again and again -- all summer and fall.

With the economy booming and voters telling pollsters they are content, Democrats need a galvanizing issue to stand any chance of retaking the House in November. They hope tobacco is the key. Some particularly cynical Democrats hoped the tobacco bill would fail -- even if they believe it is good public policy -- to hand them a white-hot election-year issue.

Indeed, Democrats didn't have a hard time finding a silver lining Wednesday.

``Big Tobacco won. That's one headline. The other headline is Republicans kill the tobacco bill,'' said Clinton aide Rahm Emanuel. ``But this is just the first day of breaking eggs.''

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Ron Fournier is AP's political reporter.