Poll Shows Half Favor Tobacco Bill’s Demise
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Hope for a way to curb teen smoking springs eternal: Sixty-six percent say Congress should keep trying to pass a tobacco bill.
By Gary Langer, ABCNEWS Polling Unit
ABCNEWS.com
N E W Y O R K, June 19 —The Senate’s rejection of anti-smoking legislation looks unlikely to burn incumbents this election year: About half the public favors the action, and Americans overwhelmingly say other issues are as likely to decide their vote, an ABCNEWS poll has found.
The national survey found neither the lopsided opinion nor the sense of umbrage that can make for a potent political issue. Indeed, the public splits evenly on whether the Senate did the right thing by killing the bill: 47 percent favor its action, 46 percent oppose it. That’s about the same split in opinion as in an independent media poll two months ago.
The new poll was conducted by telephone June 18 among a random national sample of 509 adults. The results have an margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Supporters of the tobacco legislation say they’ll make its defeat an election issue. But six in 10 Americans say it will make no difference to them this fall if their own senator was one of those who voted to kill the legislation, and another three in 10 say other issues will be as important.
Only 6 percent say the tobacco vote could be the deciding issue in their choice of candidate. And while some members of that small group are inclined to punish a vote against the tobacco bill, others are inclined to reward it.
Two Areas of Misgivings
This poll finds two areas of misgivings about the tobacco bill. First is widespread doubt that it would have achieved its goal: Nearly two-thirds of Americans do not think it would have reduced smoking among teenagers.
Second, the public splits evenly, 46 percent to 47 percent, on the charge by opponents that the bill went too far in raising taxes on cigarettes and expanding government programs. In other words, that argument resonated with about half the public.
Effect of Ads
A third of Americans say that in the past month they heard or saw advertisements urging Congress to kill the tobacco bill; half of them think these ads made a good argument. But overall opinion on the bill is about the same among those who heard or saw the ads and those who did not see them. Among people who heard the ads, 50 percent think the bill went too far in raising taxes and expanding government programs; but among those who didn’t hear the ads nearly as many, 43 percent, feel the same.
Another result also suggests that the effect of the recent ad campaign should not be overstated: Overall opinion on the bill, an even split, is no different now than it was two months ago.
Skeptical About Motives
Regardless of whether they support or oppose the Senate’s action, few Americans give it much credit for its motivation. Seventy-two percent think senators rejected the bill mainly because of pressure from the tobacco industry, not because of what they really thought of the measure. Even among those who favor the Senate action, 58 percent think the bill was killed not on its merits, but because of industry pressure.
Despite that jaundiced view of the political process, hope for a way to curb teen smoking springs eternal: Sixty-six percent say Congress should keep trying to pass a tobacco bill.
The Smoking Divide
One strong factor in most of these results is the lopsided views of smokers, who account for about one in four adult Americans. For example, 71 percent of smokers say the Senate did the right thing by killing the bill; just 39 percent of nonsmokers agree. Similarly, 73 percent of smokers say the bill went too far in raising cigarette taxes and expanding government programs; just 36 percent of nonsmokers agree.
Political party affiliation also influences views on the bill. Fifty-four percent of Democrats and independents alike say the Senate should have approved the tobacco legislation. Only 30 percent of Republicans said the Senate should have passed the bill.
