 Up
in old Norway there are two dedicated anti tobacco spammers, Bjartveit and
Tverdal, who are busy spouting out meaningless numbers. Last year they were
celebrated in Tobacco Control with the publication of this
piece of
junk claiming that smoking 1 cigarette per day is 'dangerous'. If you
study the female cohorts carefully, there seems to be a 'cohort shifting'
mechanism present among the female smokers.
Well, the
Norwegian Spammers have done it again. They've rehashed the numbers from last
years 'study', and produced a new 'study'. It is published in Tobacco Control.
You can find it
here
The
interesting cohorts can be found in
table 5. These are the cohorts labelled reducers. They represent
the heavy smokers who have tried to reduce their amount of smoking, in
order to reduce the 'risk' of smoking. Among the reducers, the amount smoked was
reduced by slightly more than 50 % (consumption halved). According to the study,
this did not affect their mortality. Let us examine the fate of the reducers by
gender.
Male
reducers.
The overall
mortality of the male reducers fell by 1%. There was a reduction in occurance of
lung cancer, other 'smoking related cancers' and ischaemic heart disease (CHD).
This was almost offset by an increase in mortality from other cardiovascular
diseases. All in all the effect of reduction on overall mortality was virtually
nil.
Female
reducers
The overall
mortality of the female reducers increased by 11 %. Yes - increased!
There was a reduction in mortality from lung cancer, but this was more than
offset by an increase in occurrance of 'other smoking related' cancers. So the
reducers had the benefit of avoiding one form of cancer at the expense of
yielding to another type of cancer. Some consolement!
Also, there
was a reduction in mortality from cardiovascular disease, which was more than
offset by an increase in mortality from ischaemic heart disease (CHD). Again,
what difference could it really make to avoid death by cardiovascular disease,
if one were to succumb instead from CHD?
Conclusion
Let us
examine the contention that smoking is the 'number 1 killer'. If smoking is such
a great killer, how would a reduction by 50 % in its use, yield an increase
in mortality? We are speaking here of negative dose response!
Some other
condition, found more frequently among smokers is killing them at a much higher
rate than the alleged 'danger' of smoking. That much is clear.
In their zest
to appease the tobacco control community, Bjartveit and Tverdal have forfieted
the opportunity to examine just what it is among smokers that kills them at a
far higher rate than smoking. They have virtually proven that smoking tobacco
cannot be a substantial killer!
Aftermath.
Obviously, my
review of the alleged findings of Bjartveit and Tverdal is not a peer review. My
review is an alien review. I see something else at play among smokers.
We all
realize that this study is no more than an expensive piece of propaganda,
camouflaged as science. It replicates the statistical association between
smoking and excess mortality, all in the service of promoting hate against
smokers. It is an excersize aimed at making headlines, no matter the cost. In
the mental universes of Bjartveit and Tverdal, smokers are no more than
miserable underlings, whose sufferings and deaths are exploited as stepping
stones to further their own ends.
One of the
headlines garnered by the study is from Channel NewsAsia. Under the heading ”Cutting
smoking won't cheat the reaper” Bjartveit comments the glaring
inconsistancies in his own study, with the following words:
"We have
no explanation for this phenomenon, beyond the fact that this could be
ascribed to chance."
There, in a
nutshell, is the explanation for all of the studies that rely on the
statistical association between smoking and lung cancer. It was discovered by
the Nazis, who exploited it for their own purposes. Quite by chance, something
else is statistically associated with smoking, and it is a very big killer. So
big, in fact, that when those affected by it, reduce their consumption of
smoking by 50 %, it easily trumps smoking.
As for the
characters of the Norwegian Spammers Bjartveit and Tverdal, I offer the
following quote, by that great cigar smoking titan Winston Spencer Churchill:
”Men
occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and
hurry off as if nothing ever happened. ”
But didn't we
already know it, even before having read this latest piece of anti smoking spam
science. That's tobacco control in a nutshell.
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